Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-155/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 36.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Josh Allen has been among the leading touchdown throwers in football this year, averaging a terrific 2.00 per game while checking in at the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.