Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Buffalo Bills vs New York Jets · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-188/+146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -148 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -188.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the 8th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.9 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
Josh Allen has attempted 38.6 passes per game this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 6th-lowest clip in football against the New York Jets defense this year (66.5%).
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 3rd-least TDs through the air in football: 0.92 per game this year.

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