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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 34.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

In racking up a whopping 4.8 rush attempts per game this year, Josh Allen places among the top QBs in football (83rd percentile) when talking about ground game utilization.

Josh Allen isn't afraid to take off running, making up 20.6% of his team's run game usage this year, putting him in the 85th percentile among quarterbacks.

Josh Allen has averaged 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in football among QBs (80th percentile).

Josh Allen's rushing effectiveness has been refined this year, totaling 6.74 adjusted yards-per-carry vs a mere 5.30 mark last year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 45.0% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the predictive model to call just 61.4 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.

The Bills have run the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 51.2 plays per game.

This year, the daunting Jets run defense has given up a mere 103.0 adjusted rushing yards per game to opposing squads: the 7th-fewest in football.

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