Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bills are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of an emphasis on rushing than their normal approach.
In this week's game, Josh Allen is expected by the model to total the 5th-most rush attempts among all QBs with 7.5.
While Josh Allen has earned 16.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a more integral piece of Buffalo's rushing attack in this game at 29.9%.
With an excellent tally of 7.1 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) (89th percentile), Josh Allen places as one of the best rushing quarterbacks in the league this year.
With a remarkable total of 3.06 yards-after-contact (81st percentile), Josh Allen stands as one of the leading rushing QBs in football this year.

Favors Under

The model projects the Bills as the 9th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 40.4% run rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in football last year at blocking for rushers.
Josh Allen's 27.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year marks a a significant decrease in his running talent over last year's 48.0 rate.
Since the start of last season, the porous Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been gouged for a whopping 4.30 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's running game: the 27th-largest rate in the league.

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