Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Washington Commanders vs Buffalo Bills · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 30.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to earn 7.0 carries in this week's game, on average: the 5th-most of all QBs.
Josh Allen has averaged 45.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the league among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).
Josh Allen has been among the top QBs in the NFL at generating extra running yardage, averaging an impressive 3.05 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 92nd percentile.
The Washington Commanders linebackers profile as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 39.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 10th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Josh Allen's running effectiveness has declined this season, totaling just 4.44 yards-per-carry vs a 7.24 rate last season.

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