Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (+114/-153).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 38.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -153.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 14-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 137.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 63.5 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 19-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to accumulate 10.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.3% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the least run-centric team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 29.0% run rate.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the worst in the league this year at run-game blocking.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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