Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 18

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 18, 2022

Updated Jan 8, 2023 6:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 37.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 41.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 37.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 8th-most total plays among all teams this week with 66.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to accrue 7.4 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (29.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.8% in games he has played).
Josh Allen has run for quite a few more yards per game (50.0) this season than he did last season (40.0).

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-least run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 38.4% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 9th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 55.1 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The New England Patriots defense boasts the 4th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up just 4.15 yards-per-carry.

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