Josh Allen Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Rushing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 43.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 38.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to earn 8.8 carries this week, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 30.2% run rate.
The Minnesota Vikings defense has produced the 5th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing just 4.17 yards-per-carry.
The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles rank as the best unit in football this year in regard to defending the run.

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