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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+177/-259).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +188 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +177.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Josh Allen has rushed for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest figures in football among quarterbacks (94th percentile).

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends rank as the 3rd-worst collection of DEs in the league this year when it comes to defending the run.

The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least run-heavy team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 36.3% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much less involved in his team's running game near the end zone this week (42.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (58.3% in games he has played).

The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Opposing squads have rushed for the 7th-least touchdowns in the league (0.60 per game) versus the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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