Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 241.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 249.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 241.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense results when facing more favorable weather this week.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Bills profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season.
Josh Allen has been one of the top passers in football since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 216.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
With a fantastic 8.61 adjusted yards-per-target (90th percentile) this year, Josh Allen ranks among the most efficient quarterbacks in football.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest clip in the league vs. the New England Patriots defense since the start of last season (72.7% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

This week's line implies a rushing game script for the Bills, who are favored by 6.5 points.
The leading projections forecast the Bills to be the 4th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 5th-fewest plays run among all games this week at 125.6 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The model projects Josh Allen to attempt 32.5 passes this week, on balance: the 10th-fewest among all quarterbacks.
Josh Allen's 65.8% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a significant drop-off in his passing precision over last year's 71.2% rate.