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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 239.5 (-143/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 238.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 239.5 @ -143.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Josh Allen has been one of the leading passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 246.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 76th percentile.

With a fantastic 8.06 adjusted yards-per-target (79th percentile) this year, Josh Allen has been as one of the most effective passers in the NFL.

This year, the shaky New England Patriots defense has allowed the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing teams: a massive 7.98 yards.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

The leading projections forecast Josh Allen to attempt 31.0 passes in this game, on average: the 5th-fewest among all QBs.

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