Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 281.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 267.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 281.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 70.0% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Josh Allen has attempted 36.9 passes per game this year, ranking in the 81st percentile among QBs.
Josh Allen has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging a terrific 271.0 yards per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 9th-least yards in the NFL (just 206.0 per game) against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year.

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