Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 263.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 240.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 263.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.3 pass attempts per game against the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 8th-most in the NFL.
Josh Allen has been among the best passers in the league this year, averaging an impressive 274.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Josh Allen has been among the most efficient passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 7.66 yards-per-target while ranking in the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 64.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.9 passes this week, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line ranks as the worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals defense has performed very well when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.66 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 9th-least in the league.