Josh Allen Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Passing Yards

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:11 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Allen Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 243.5 (-145/+106).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 232.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 243.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now with a 70.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 36.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 10th-most of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in the NFL.
Josh Allen has been among the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 275.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.72 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 4th-least in football.
The Miami Dolphins pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a mere 2.36 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 3rd-quickest in the league since the start of last season.

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