Josh Allen Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Interceptions

Buffalo Bills vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-107/-122).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -122.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 69.8% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-most plays run among all games this week at 135.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings safeties profile as the 8th-worst safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Buffalo Bills O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.72 seconds before the pass (4th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 7-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
The Minnesota Vikings have intercepted 1.04 throws per game this year, ranking as the 5th-best defense in football by this standard.
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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