Josh Allen Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Completions

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+112/-149).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 19.5 @ -149.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buffalo Bills boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.0% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 70.7% pass rate.
Josh Allen has attempted 38.1 throws per game this year, grading out in the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the league against the Chicago Bears defense this year (73.5%).
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 3rd-worst collection of CBs in football this year in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Bills are a heavy 8.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least total plays on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line grades out as the 10th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing game stats across the board.

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