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Josh Allen

Josh Allen Carries
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (+104/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -142.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.

Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Buffalo Bills to run on 48.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-highest clip on the slate this week.

This week, Josh Allen is anticipated by our trusted projection set to garner the 5th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 7.8.

Comprising 24.4% of his offense's rushing play calls this year (91st percentile when it comes to QBs), Josh Allen's mobility marks him as a serious threat in Buffalo's rushing attack.

The Patriots safeties rank as the 26th-worst unit in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

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