Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-130/-102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 7.5-point advantage, the Bills are a massive favorite in this game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
In this week's contest, Josh Allen is expected by our trusted projection set to accumulate the 6th-most rush attempts out of all QBs with 5.2.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bills to be the 3rd-least run-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 32.4% run rate.
Right now, the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
Josh Allen has been a less important option in his offense's run game this season (15.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (27.2%).
As it relates to run support (and the influence it has on all ground game statistics), the offensive line of the Buffalo Bills profiles as the 7th-worst in the league last year.
The New England Patriots safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

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