Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 20

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 20, 2022

Updated Jan 22, 2023 7:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+116/-154).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -154.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to notch 7.4 carries in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (30.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on a mere 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.3% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the least run-heavy offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 30.0% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bills to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the least plays in football this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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