Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills are a giant 7-point favorite in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to notch 8.5 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be much more involved in his team's run game this week (31.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.2% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.0% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 2nd-least run-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 29.4% run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 7th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 28.77 seconds per snap.
The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Miami Dolphins defensive ends grade out as the 2nd-best unit in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

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