Josh Allen Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

reorder

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

Carries

Los Angeles Rams vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 8, 2022 11:47 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-102/-130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 128.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have called the 3rd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 65.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to total 5.9 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to be a much bigger part of his team's run game this week (25.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (17.9% in games he has played).
The Buffalo Bills have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 35.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have played in the most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, reduced running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions this week.
The weatherman calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Los Angeles Rams defensive ends project as the best collection of DEs in the league since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.