Jordan Love Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 8:23 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Love Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+607/-745).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 130.0 offensive plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced rush volume.
Jordan Love has been among the top touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 1.50 per game while grading out in the 82nd percentile.
The rushing touchdown line reads "0" on the back of Jordan Love's trading card since the start of last season.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
While Jordan Love has earned 3.2% of his offense's red zone run game usage in games he has played since the start of last season, the projections expect him to be much more involved in Green Bay's ground game near the goal line in this week's contest at 9.1%.
Jordan Love's passing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.1% to 53.5%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Falcons defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

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