Jordan Love Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jordan Love

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Love

QB · Green Bay Packers

Completions

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 8:23 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Love Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+100/-127).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 130.0 offensive plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced rush volume.
Jordan Love has attempted 29.9 throws per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 80th percentile when it comes to QBs.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been very bad since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Jordan Love's passing precision has diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion% decreasing from 67.1% to 53.5%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL against the Falcons defense since the start of last season (67.4% Adjusted Completion%).

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