Jordan Addison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jordan Addison

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 4:07 PM EST

Analysis

Jordan Addison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (-116/-103).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 99.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may drop.
Jordan Addison has run a route on 90.5% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 90th percentile when it comes to WRs.
In this contest, Jordan Addison is expected by the projections to position himself in the 89th percentile among wideouts with 8.1 targets.
Jordan Addison has posted a staggering 78.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 85th percentile among wide receivers.
The Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (68%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.0%).

Favors Under

With a 10-point advantage, the Vikings are a huge favorite in this week's game, indicating much more of a focus on rushing than their standard approach.
Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 5th-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 54.2% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.3 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 51.7 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 30.0 per game) since the start of last season.