Jordan Addison Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Jordan Addison

NFL · Player Props

Jordan Addison

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jordan Addison Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 39.5 @ +110 before it was bet down to 39.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 63.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 133.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have run the 9th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a colossal 60.6 plays per game.
The Panthers pass defense has been gouged for the highest Completion% in the league (71.4%) to WRs since the start of last season (71.4%).
Panthers cornerbacks profile as the 7th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Vikings have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
Jordan Addison has been among the bottom wide receivers in the NFL at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a lowly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
The Panthers pass defense has performed very well when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 3.52 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-fewest in the league.

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