Jonnu Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Green Bay Packers · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 7, 2026 5:03 AM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1236/-2581).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.7% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.6% red zone pass rate.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Packers to call the 7th-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
Jonnu Smith's 6.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.
In regards to protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the worst in the league this year.
The receiving TD column reads "0" on Jonnu Smith's player page this year.
This year, the daunting New England Patriots defense has conceded a feeble 69.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the 6th-smallest rate in the league.

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