Jonnu Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 29, 2026 5:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1150/-1329).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 8th-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (59.6% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Packers.
The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
Jonnu Smith's 6.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 21.4.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
The receiving TD line reads "0" on the back of Jonnu Smith's trading card this year.
The Panthers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.6%) versus TEs this year (63.6%).

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