Jonnu Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1011/-1150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -4-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (58.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Packers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 137.4 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Jonnu Smith's 6.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the worst in the league this year.

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