Jonnu Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

reorder

NBA Season Tips Off Soon — Don’t Miss the Action! 🏀 2d 13:22:05 🏀 SUBSCRIBE NOW

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 17, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+752/-968).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1237 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -968.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers to pass on 63.1% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.0 plays, given the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
This year, the feeble Cowboys pass defense has conceded a massive 91.0% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the biggest rate in the league.
The Dallas defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best unit in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The 8th-lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Packers this year (just 54.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cowboys defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Jonnu Smith's 8.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit worse this season than it was last season at 21.4.
When talking about pass-blocking (and the effect it has on all passing offense stats), the O-line of the Packers grades out as the 2nd-worst in football this year.
The opposing side have rushed for the 6th-most TDs in the NFL (1.20 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year.