Jonnu Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+945/-1235).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Packers to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 60.0% red zone pass rate.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 131.4 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Chicago Bears pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Jonnu Smith's 10.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 21.4.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
This year, the stout Bears defense has conceded a feeble 0.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in the league.
The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.

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