Jonnu Smith Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Green Bay Packers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 24, 2026 8:03 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+669/-700).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Packers to be the 8th-most pass-focused team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.2% pass rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to have 130.0 offensive plays called: the 4th-most among all games this week.
Still weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally cause better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced rush volume.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Atlanta Falcons run defense has given up a puny 0.63 TDs on the ground per game to opposing squads: the 5th-lowest rate in football.
When it comes to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's group of LBs has been very bad since the start of last season, projecting as the 9th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This game's spread indicates a running game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The Green Bay Packers have run the 9th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 54.9 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith has been been lightly used his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which ranks him in the 1st percentile when it comes to TEs.
With a bad 69.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (14th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonnu Smith ranks among the least sure-handed receivers in football when it comes to TEs.
Since the start of last season, the strong Falcons defense has given up a puny 0.32 TDs through the air per game to opposing TEs: the 4th-best rate in the league.