Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Green Bay Packers · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+181/-218).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -191 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -218.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 61.7% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Since the start of last season, the porous Buccaneers pass defense has allowed a monstrous 77.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 8th-largest rate in the NFL.
As it relates to defensive tackles rushing the passer, Tampa Bay's group of DTs has been awful since the start of last season, profiling as the 7th-worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

The Packers are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Green Bay Packers are expected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.6 offensive plays in this game: the 5th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Packers have called the 9th-fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.2 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith's 10.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.
When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the importance it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Green Bay Packers ranks as the 7th-worst in football since the start of last season.