Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+144/-186).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -154 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -186.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
This week, Jonnu Smith is expected by the model to place in the 85th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.
Jonnu Smith's 30.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit better this year than it was last year at 16.2.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
As it relates to safeties in covering receivers, Minnesota's collection of safeties has been outstanding this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in the league.

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