Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

New York Jets vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+155/-185).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.
The Falcons have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.
In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among TEs with 3.8 targets.
Jonnu Smith has been much more involved in his team's pass game this year (14.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (9.0%).
The Falcons offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive influence on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
This year, the formidable Jets defense has given up a meager 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.
As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's LB corps has been great this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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