Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:26 AM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-145/+105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +125 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 137.0 total plays called: the highest number out of all the games this week.
The Falcons have run the 4th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a massive 61.9 plays per game.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may drop.
In this game, Jonnu Smith is expected by the model to rank in the 83rd percentile among TEs with 5.0 targets.
Jonnu Smith's 14.9% Target% this season illustrates a remarkable growth in his pass game volume over last season's 9.0% figure.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Falcons to pass on 55.1% of their chances: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
This year, the stout Saints defense has given up a mere 67.9% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-lowest rate in football.
The Saints defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-best unit in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.

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