Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to call the 4th-most total plays on the slate this week with 66.2 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Falcons this year (a colossal 62.0 per game on average).
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.
The leading projections forecast Jonnu Smith to total 4.9 targets in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile among TEs.
Jonnu Smith has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this season (15.1% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.0%).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 33.6 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 7th-fewest in the NFL.
This year, the daunting Arizona Cardinals defense has given up a meager 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 7th-smallest rate in football.

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