Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+210/-275).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -250 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -275.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
The Green Bay Packers pass defense has conceded the 7th-highest Completion% in football (75.3%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (75.3%).
The Green Bay Packers defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 8th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
The Green Bay Packers linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.