Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 2:55 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+126/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +126.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in football.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the 8th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The New England Patriots have faced a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have stacked the box versus opponents on 18.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 5th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 60.6 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith's possession skills have tailed off this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 65.0% to 40.5%.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has yielded the 9th-lowest Completion% in the NFL (69.1%) to TEs since the start of last season (69.1%).
The New England Patriots O-line has allowed their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

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