Jonnu Smith Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-150/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -132 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
Jonnu Smith's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.0% to 74.5%.
The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the NFL (84%) versus tight ends this year (84.0%).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.
The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their quarterback a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks a mere 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.
The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.