Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 29, 2026 6:48 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -126 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Packers to pass on 62.3% of their chances: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The projections expect this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 134.6 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.
Jonnu Smith has posted substantially more adjusted receiving yards per game (20.0) this season than he did last season (11.0).
Jonnu Smith's pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this year, averaging 9.85 adjusted yards-per-target vs just 4.17 figure last year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Packers are favored in this week's contest, indicating more of a reliance on running than their typical game plan.
Jonnu Smith's 23.1% Route Participation Rate this year marks a noteable regression in his air attack volume over last year's 51.6% rate.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass game stats), the O-line of the Packers profiles as the worst in the NFL this year.
The Panthers pass defense has allowed the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.6%) versus TEs this year (63.6%).
This year, the imposing Carolina Panthers defense has yielded the 8th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a measly 6.3 yards.

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