Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-118/-112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Packers to pass on 63.3% of their plays: the 2nd-highest rate among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 131.4 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
Jonnu Smith's pass-game effectiveness has gotten a boost this year, notching 9.84 adjusted yards-per-target vs a measly 4.17 rate last year.
Since the start of last season, the feeble Chicago Bears pass defense has been gouged for a colossal 81.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-worst rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Opposing offenses have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 3rd-fewest in the league.
Jonnu Smith's 10.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit worse this year than it was last year at 21.4.
The Green Bay offensive line ranks as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all pass game stats across the board.
This year, the strong Chicago Bears defense has conceded a puny 34.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 5th-best in the NFL.
The Chicago Bears linebackers rank as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.