Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 26.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 27.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 26.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to have the 3rd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.2 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.
The Falcons have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may slide.
This week, Jonnu Smith is expected by the model to place in the 85th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.
After totaling 9.0 air yards per game last season, Jonnu Smith has produced significantly more this season, currently sitting at 32.0 per game.

Favors Under

This week's spread indicates a rushing game script for the Falcons, who are favored by 3.5 points.
The model projects the Atlanta Falcons to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jonnu Smith's 5.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season indicates a substantial decrease in his effectiveness in picking up extra yardage over last season's 8.3% mark.
This year, the daunting Vikings defense has yielded a puny 36.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing tight ends: the 3rd-best in the NFL.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has displayed strong efficiency versus tight ends this year, surrendering 5.47 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 4th-fewest in football.

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