Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A throwing game script is indicated by the Falcons being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.
The projections expect the Atlanta Falcons to be the 10th-fastest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 27.70 seconds per snap.
The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (40.6 per game) this year.
The projections expect Jonnu Smith to accumulate 5.0 targets in this game, on average, putting him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
Jonnu Smith's 16.7% Target% this year represents a a noteable growth in his pass attack workload over last year's 9.0% mark.

Favors Under

The model projects the Falcons as the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Jonnu Smith's ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this year, accumulating just 5.52 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 8.26 rate last year.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (62.7%) versus TEs this year (62.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed good efficiency versus tight ends this year, conceding 4.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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