Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:51 AM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-105/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 7.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Atlanta Falcons offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Jonnu Smith has been among the best TEs in the league at picking up extra yardage, averaging an impressive 8.26 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 98th percentile.
The Green Bay Packers safeties project as the 10th-worst safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Favors Under

The Falcons are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 125.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Atlanta Falcons have run the 5th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a mere 54.4 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 28.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.

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