Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · Atlanta Falcons

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 5:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 19.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Atlanta Falcons to call the most total plays on the slate this week with 67.4 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 4th-largest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Falcons this year (a colossal 61.2 per game on average).
Jonnu Smith's 14.3% Target Share this season signifies a meaningful gain in his passing offense usage over last season's 9.0% rate.
After accumulating 9.0 air yards per game last season, Jonnu Smith has made big progress this season, now sitting at 24.0 per game.
The Atlanta O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year in pass protection, which has a positive influence on all pass game stats across the board.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Falcons to pass on 46.8% of their plays: the lowest rate on the slate this week.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.
Jonnu Smith's 6.80 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this season illustrates a substantial decrease in his efficiency in space over last season's 8.3% figure.
The Carolina Panthers defense has conceded the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 38.0) versus TEs this year.

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