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Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+100/-130).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Falcons are anticipated by our trusted projection set to run 66.6 plays on offense in this game: the 5th-most among all teams this week.The Falcons have called the 6th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 61.5 plays per game.In this week's contest, Jonnu Smith is projected by the model to secure a spot in the 77th percentile among TEs with 3.8 targets.Jonnu Smith has been much more involved in his team's pass game this year (14.0% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (9.0%).After accumulating 9.0 air yards per game last season, Jonnu Smith has seen marked improvement this season, currently averaging 25.0 per game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The leading projections forecast the Falcons to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 49.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.Opposing offenses have averaged 33.0 pass attempts per game against the New York Jets defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.This year, the formidable Jets defense has given up a meager 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing tight ends: the 3rd-lowest rate in the league.This year, the stout Jets defense has conceded the 4th-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing TEs: a paltry 6.3 yards.As it relates to linebackers in defending pass-catchers, New York's LB corps has been great this year, ranking as the best in the league.
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