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Jonnu Smith

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -121 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -121.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 9th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.6% pass rate.

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots offense to be the 8th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 26.93 seconds per snap.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense this year: 7th-most in football.

The New England Patriots offensive line grades out as the 10th-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The Cincinnati Bengals linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering receivers.

The New England Patriots offensive line has allowed their QB a measly 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.6% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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