Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Jonnu Smith's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 65.0% to 71.6%.
Jonnu Smith's skills in generating extra yardage have gotten better this year, averaging 9.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a measly 7.32 mark last year.
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has conceded the 7th-most receiving yards per game in football (53.0) versus tight ends this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (7.0 per game) than he did last year (14.0 per game).
Jonnu Smith's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, averaging a mere 6.24 yards-per-target compared to a 7.29 rate last season.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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