Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Jonnu Smith

NFL · Player Props

Jonnu Smith

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 7:38 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonnu Smith Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 10.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 15.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the league.
Jonnu Smith has been among the best tight ends in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 7.32 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while grading out in the 96th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins defense has conceded the 10th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (55.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has surrendered the 4th-highest Completion% in the league (77.8%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (77.8%).

Favors Under

The Patriots rank as the 8th-least pass-centric team in the league (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 60.3% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the least total plays among all teams this week with 58.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have called the 9th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a mere 60.7 plays per game.
Jonnu Smith has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, catching a mere 65.0% of balls thrown his way since the start of last season, checking in at the 23rd percentile.
The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

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