Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-130/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have only 127.1 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a staggering 60.5 per game on average).
Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (55.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (70.0% in games he has played).
Jonathan Taylor's 15.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) ranks him among the best in the league: 83rd percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

Right now, the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football in the red zone (49.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
Jonathan Taylor has put up a paltry -5.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 9th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Jonathan Taylor's 74.3% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a remarkable reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 84.9% rate.
The receiving TD column reads "0" on Jonathan Taylor's box scores this year.

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